Modeling time-varying phytoplankton subsidy reveals at-risk species in a Chilean intertidal ecosystem.

The allometric trophic network (ATN) framework for modeling population dynamics has provided numerous insights into ecosystem functioning in recent years. Herein we extend ATN modeling of the intertidal ecosystem off central Chile to include empirical data on pelagic chlorophyll-a concentration. This intertidal community requires subsidy of primary productivity to support its rich ecosystem. Previous work models this subsidy using a constant rate of phytoplankton input to the system. However, data shows pelagic subsidies exhibit highly variable, pulse-like behavior. The primary contribution of our work is incorporating this variable input into ATN modeling to simulate how this ecosystem may respond to pulses of pelagic phytoplankton. Our model results show that: (1) closely related sea snails respond differently to phytoplankton variability, which is explained by the underlying network structure of the food web; (2) increasing the rate of pelagic-intertidal mixing increases fluctuations in species' biomasses that may increase the risk of local extirpation; (3) predators are the most sensitive species to phytoplankton biomass fluctuations, putting these species at greater risk of extirpation than others. Finally, our work provides a straightforward way to incorporate empirical, time-series data into the ATN framework that will expand this powerful methodology to new applications.

Making Your Own Luck: Weak Vertical Swimming Improves Dispersal Success for Coastal Marine Larvae.

Dispersive early life stages are common in nature. Although many dispersing organisms ("propagules") are passively moved by outside forces, some improve their chances of successful dispersal through weak movements that exploit the structure of the environment to great effect. The larvae of many coastal marine invertebrates, for instance, swim vertically through the water column to exploit depth-varying currents, food abundance, and predation risk. Several swimming behaviors and their effects on dispersal between habitats are characterized in the literature, yet it remains unclear when and why these behaviors are advantageous. We addressed this gap using a mathematical model of larval dispersal that scored how well behaviors allowed larvae to simultaneously locate habitats, avoid predators, and gather energy. We computed optimal larval behaviors through dynamic programming, and compared those optima against passive floating and three well documented behaviors from the literature. Optimal behaviors often (but not always) resembled the documented ones. However, our model predicted that the behaviors from the literature performed robustly well, if not optimally, across many conditions. Our results shed light on why some larval behaviors are widespread geographically and across species, and underscore the importance of carefully considering the weak movements of otherwise passive propagules when studying dispersal.

A Decade of Death and Other Dynamics: Deepening Perspectives on the Diversity and Distribution of Sea Stars and Wasting.

AbstractMass mortality events provide valuable insight into biological extremes and also ecological interactions more generally. The sea star wasting epidemic that began in 2013 catalyzed study of the microbiome, genetics, population dynamics, and community ecology of several high-profile species inhabiting the northeastern Pacific but exposed a dearth of information on the diversity, distributions, and impacts of sea star wasting for many lesser-known sea stars and a need for integration across scales. Here, we combine datasets from single-site to coast-wide studies, across time lines from weeks to decades, for 65 species. We evaluated the impacts of abiotic characteristics hypothetically associated with sea star wasting (sea surface temperature, pelagic primary productivity, upwelling wind forcing, wave exposure, freshwater runoff) and species characteristics (depth distribution, developmental mode, diet, habitat, reproductive period). We find that the 2010s sea star wasting outbreak clearly affected a little over a dozen species, primarily intertidal and shallow subtidal taxa, causing instantaneous wasting prevalence rates of 5%-80%. Despite the collapse of some populations within weeks, environmental and species variation protracted the outbreak, which lasted 2-3 years from onset until declining to chronic background rates of ∼2% sea star wasting prevalence. Recruitment began immediately in many species, and in general, sea star assemblages trended toward recovery; however, recovery was heterogeneous, and a marine heatwave in 2019 raised concerns of a second decline. The abiotic stressors most associated with the 2010s sea star wasting outbreak were elevated sea surface temperature and low wave exposure, as well as freshwater discharge in the north. However, detailed data speaking directly to the biological, ecological, and environmental cause(s) and consequences of the sea star wasting outbreak remain limited in scope, unavoidably retrospective, and perhaps always indeterminate. Redressing this shortfall for the future will require a broad spectrum of monitoring studies not less than the taxonomically broad cross-scale framework we have modeled in this synthesis.

Integrating High-Resolution Coastal Acidification Monitoring Data Across Seven United States Estuaries.

Beginning in 2015, the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) National Estuary Program (NEP) started a collaboration with partners in seven estuaries along the East Coast (Barnegat Bay; Casco Bay), West Coast (Santa Monica Bay; San Francisco Bay; Tillamook Bay), and the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Coast (Tampa Bay; Mission-Aransas Estuary) of the United States to expand the use of autonomous monitoring of partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and pH. Analysis of high-frequency (hourly to sub-hourly) coastal acidification data including pCO2, pH, temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen (DO) indicate that the sensors effectively captured key parameter measurements under challenging environmental conditions, allowing for an initial characterization of daily to seasonal trends in carbonate chemistry across a range of estuarine settings. Multi-year monitoring showed that across all water bodies temperature and pCO2 covaried, suggesting that pCO2 variability was governed, in part, by seasonal temperature changes with average pCO2 being lower in cooler, winter months and higher in warmer, summer months. Furthermore, the timing of seasonal shifts towards increasing (or decreasing) pCO2 varied by location and appears to be related to regional climate conditions. Specifically, pCO2 increases began earlier in the year in warmer water, lower latitude water bodies in the GOM (Tampa Bay; Mission-Aransas Estuary) as compared with cooler water, higher latitude water bodies in the northeast (Barnegat Bay; Casco Bay), and upwelling-influenced West Coast water bodies (Tillamook Bay; Santa Monica Bay; San Francisco Bay). Results suggest that both thermal and non-thermal influences are important drivers of pCO2 in Tampa Bay oxygen, National Estuary Program and Mission-Aransas Estuary. Conversely, non-thermal processes, most notably the biogeochemical structure of coastal upwelling, appear to be largely responsible for the observed pCO2 values in West Coast water bodies. The co-occurrence of high salinity, high pCO2, low DO, and low temperature water in Santa Monica Bay and San Francisco Bay characterize the coastal upwelling paradigm that is also evident in Tillamook Bay when upwelling dominates freshwater runoff and local processes. These data demonstrate that high-quality carbonate chemistry observations can be recorded from estuarine environments using autonomous sensors originally designed for open-ocean settings.

Upwelling Bays: How Coastal Upwelling Controls Circulation, Habitat, and Productivity in Bays.

Bays in coastal upwelling regions are physically driven and biochemically fueled by their interaction with open coastal waters. Wind-driven flow over the shelf imposes a circulation in the bay, which is also influenced by local wind stress and thermal bay-ocean density differences. Three types of bays are recognized based on the degree of exposure to coastal currents and winds (wide-open bays, square bays, and elongated bays), and the characteristic circulation and stratification patterns of each type are described. Retention of upwelled waters in bays allows for dense phytoplankton blooms that support productive bay ecosystems. Retention is also important for the accumulation of larvae, which accounts for high recruitment in bays. In addition, bays are coupled to the shelf ecosystem through export of plankton-rich waters during relaxation events. Ocean acidification and deoxygenation are a concern in bays because local extrema can develop beneath strong stratification.

Developing ocean climate change indicators for the north-central California coast and ocean.

The Ocean Climate Indicators Project, developed for the Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS), yielded the first set of physical and biological ocean climate indicators specifically developed for the north-central California coast and ocean region, which extends from Point Arena to Point Año Nuevo and includes the ocean shorelines of the San Francisco metropolitan area. This case study produced a series of physical and biological indicator categories through a best professional judgment (BPJ) process with an interdisciplinary group of over 50 regional research scientists and marine resource managers from a wide range of state and federal agencies, NGOs, and universities. A working group of research scientists and marine resource managers used this set of ocean climate indicators to develop the Ocean Climate Indicators Monitoring Inventory and Plan. The Plan includes monitoring goals and objectives common for eight physical and four biological indicators; specific goals for each indicator; monitoring strategies and activities; an inventory of available monitoring data; opportunities for expanding or improving existing or new monitoring approaches; and case studies with specific examples of the indicators' utility for natural resource management and basic scientific research. Beyond developing indicators that support effective science-based management decisions, this scalable process established and strengthened mutually beneficial connections between scientists and managers, resulting in indicators that had broad support of project participants, were quickly adopted by the GFNMS, and could be used by managers and scientists from this region and beyond.

Widespread shifts in the coastal biota of northern California during the 2014-2016 marine heatwaves.

During 2014-2016, severe marine heatwaves in the northeast Pacific triggered well-documented disturbances including mass mortalities, harmful algal blooms, and declines in subtidal kelp beds. However, less attention has been directed towards understanding how changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and alongshore currents during this period influenced the geographic distribution of coastal taxa. Here, we examine these effects in northern California, USA, with a focus on the region between Point Reyes and Point Arena. This region represents an important biogeographic transition zone that lies <150 km north of Monterey Bay, California, where numerous southern species have historically reached their northern (poleward) range limits. We report substantial changes in geographic distributions and/or abundances across a diverse suite of 67 southern species, including an unprecedented number of poleward range extensions (37) and striking increases in the recruitment of owl limpets (Lottia gigantea) and volcano barnacles (Tetraclita rubescens). These ecological responses likely arose through the combined effects of extreme SST, periods of anomalous poleward flow, and the unusually long duration of heatwave events. Prolonged marine heatwaves and enhanced poleward dispersal may play an important role in longer-term shifts in the composition of coastal communities in northern California and other biogeographic transition zones.

Coastal development and precipitation drive pathogen flow from land to sea: evidence from a Toxoplasma gondii and felid host system.

Rapidly developing coastal regions face consequences of land use and climate change including flooding and increased sediment, nutrient, and chemical runoff, but these forces may also enhance pathogen runoff, which threatens human, animal, and ecosystem health. Using the zoonotic parasite Toxoplasma gondii in California, USA as a model for coastal pathogen pollution, we examine the spatial distribution of parasite runoff and the impacts of precipitation and development on projected pathogen delivery to the ocean. Oocysts, the extremely hardy free-living environmental stage of T. gondii shed in faeces of domestic and wild felids, are carried to the ocean by freshwater runoff. Linking spatial pathogen loading and transport models, we show that watersheds with the highest levels of oocyst runoff align closely with regions of increased sentinel marine mammal T. gondii infection. These watersheds are characterized by higher levels of coastal development and larger domestic cat populations. Increases in coastal development and precipitation independently raised oocyst delivery to the ocean (average increases of 44% and 79%, respectively), but dramatically increased parasite runoff when combined (175% average increase). Anthropogenic changes in landscapes and climate can accelerate runoff of diverse pathogens from terrestrial to aquatic environments, influencing transmission to people, domestic animals, and wildlife.

Delivery of marine larvae to shore requires multiple sequential transport mechanisms.

Most sedentary marine animals disperse from their place of origin during their initial life stages as larvae. The delivery of planktonic larvae back to coastal adult habitats after weeks or months of offshore development is commonly thought to be stochastic, resulting in large recruitment fluctuations and making predictive understanding of population dynamics difficult. Time series of invertebrate settlement on intertidal shores have been used to infer how various oceanographic processes deliver planktonic larvae ashore. However, the possibility that successful settlement may involve a series of different transport mechanisms, which are sequentially utilized by late-stage larvae, has received little attention. To address this, we monitored both the delivery of mussel and barnacle larvae to inner-shelf moorings positioned 200-1400 m from the shore, and larval settlement in the intertidal adult habitat, at two contrasting sites: a headland forming an upwelling center and a downstream bay. Model selection was employed to determine the most likely scenario(s) of larval onshore transport from four a priori transport mechanisms individually and in combination: (1) upwelling or relaxation/downwelling, (2) tidal motions, (3) diurnal sea breezes, and (4) surface waves. Mussel larvae were delivered to the inner shelf during upwelling in the bay, but during downwelling at the headland, and were further transported to the shore by surface waves at both locales. In contrast, the delivery of barnacle larvae to the inner shelf occurred during relaxation/downwelling events at both sites, and intertidal settlement coincided with spring tides, suggesting a role for internal tides in their onshore transport. Thus, sequential mechanisms appear to be utilized by larvae to get to the shore, involving interactions of regional-scale upwelling/downwelling processes and local-scale tidal and surface-wave processes, which differ among taxa and among sites with different topography. A bottleneck for larval delivery across the surf zone may be a result of out-of-phase steps in sequential transport mechanisms leaving larvae lost "in transit."

Marine population connectivity: reconciling large-scale dispersal and high self-retention.

Predicting connectivity patterns in systems with fluid transport requires descriptions of the spatial distribution of propagules. In contrast to research on terrestrial seed dispersal, where much attention has focused on localized physical factors affecting dispersal, studies of oceanic propagule dispersal have often emphasized the role of large-scale factors. We link these two perspectives by exploring how propagule dispersal in the ocean is influenced by the "coastal boundary layer" (CBL), a region of reduced velocities near the shoreline that might substantially modify local-scale dispersal. We used a simple simulation model to demonstrate that accounting for the CBL markedly alters transport distances, the widths of dispersal distributions, and the fraction of larvae retained near their sites of origin (self-retention). Median dispersal distances were up to 59% shorter in simulations with a CBL than in those without. Self-retention of larvae increased by up to 3 orders of magnitude in the presence of CBLs, but only minor changes arose in the long-distance tails of the distributions, resulting in asymmetric, non-Gaussian kernels analogous to those quantified for terrestrial seed dispersal. Because successfully settling larvae are commonly those that remain close to shore and interact with the CBL, ignoring this pervasive oceanographic feature will substantially alter predictions of population self-persistence, estimates of connectivity, and outcomes of metapopulation analyses.

Aquatic polymers can drive pathogen transmission in coastal ecosystems.

Gelatinous polymers including extracellular polymeric substances (EPSs) are fundamental to biophysical processes in aquatic habitats, including mediating aggregation processes and functioning as the matrix of biofilms. Yet insight into the impact of these sticky molecules on the environmental transmission of pathogens in the ocean is limited. We used the zoonotic parasite Toxoplasma gondii as a model to evaluate polymer-mediated mechanisms that promote transmission of terrestrially derived pathogens to marine fauna and humans. We show that transparent exopolymer particles, a particulate form of EPS, enhance T. gondii association with marine aggregates, material consumed by organisms otherwise unable to access micrometre-sized particles. Adhesion to EPS biofilms on macroalgae also captures T. gondii from the water, enabling uptake of pathogens by invertebrates that feed on kelp surfaces. We demonstrate the acquisition, concentration and retention of T. gondii by kelp-grazing snails, which can transmit T. gondii to threatened California sea otters. Results highlight novel mechanisms whereby aquatic polymers facilitate incorporation of pathogens into food webs via association with particle aggregates and biofilms. Identifying the critical role of invisible polymers in transmission of pathogens in the ocean represents a fundamental advance in understanding and mitigating the health impacts of coastal habitat pollution with contaminated runoff.

Latitudinal discontinuity in thermal conditions along the nearshore of central-northern Chile.

Over the past decade, evidence of abrupt latitudinal changes in the dynamics, structure and genetic variability of intertidal and subtidal benthic communities along central-northern Chile has been found consistently at 30-32°S. Changes in the advective and thermal environment in nearshore waters have been inferred from ecological patterns, since analyses of in situ physical data have thus far been missing. Here we analyze a unique set of shoreline temperature data, gathered over 4-10 years at 15 sites between 28-35°S, and combine it with satellite-derived winds and sea surface temperatures to investigate the latitudinal transition in nearshore oceanographic conditions suggested by recent ecological studies. Our results show a marked transition in thermal conditions at 30-31°S, superimposed on a broad latitudinal trend, and small-scale structures associated with cape-and-bay topography. The seasonal cycle dominated temperature variability throughout the region, but its relative importance decreased abruptly south of 30-31°S, as variability at synoptic and intra-seasonal scales became more important. The response of shoreline temperatures to meridional wind stress also changed abruptly at the transition, leading to a sharp drop in the occurrence of low-temperature waters at northern sites, and a concurrent decrease in corticated algal biomass. Together, these results suggest a limitation of nitrate availability in nearshore waters north of the transition. The localized alongshore change results from the interaction of latitudinal trends (e.g., wind stress, surface warming, inertial period) with a major headland-bay system (Punta Lengua de Vaca at 30.25°S), which juxtaposes a southern stretch of coast characterized by upwelling with a northern stretch of coast characterized by warm surface waters and stratification. This transition likely generates a number of latitude-dependent controls on ecological processes in the nearshore that can explain species-specific effects, and add strength to the suggestion of an oceanography-driven, major spatial transition in coastal communities at 30-31°S.

Research commentary: Association of zoonotic pathogens with fresh, estuarine, and marine macroaggregates.

Aquatic macroaggregates (flocs ≥ 0.5 mm) provide an important mechanism for vertical flux of nutrients and organic matter in aquatic ecosystems, yet their role in the transport and fate of zoonotic pathogens is largely unknown. Terrestrial pathogens that enter coastal waters through contaminated freshwater runoff may be especially prone to flocculation due to fluid dynamics and electrochemical changes that occur where fresh and marine waters mix. In this study, laboratory experiments were conducted to evaluate whether zoonotic pathogens (Cryptosporidium, Giardia, Salmonella) and a virus surrogate (PP7) are associated with aquatic macroaggregates and whether pathogen aggregation is enhanced in saline waters. Targeted microorganisms showed increased association with macroaggregates in estuarine and marine waters, as compared with an ultrapure water control and natural freshwater. Enrichment factor estimations demonstrated that pathogens are 2-4 orders of magnitude more concentrated in aggregates than in the estuarine and marine water surrounding the aggregates. Pathogen incorporation into aquatic macroaggregates may influence their transmission to susceptible hosts through settling and subsequent accumulation in zones where aggregation is greatest, as well as via enhanced uptake by invertebrates that serve as prey for marine animals or as seafood for humans.

Effect of estuarine wetland degradation on transport of Toxoplasma gondii surrogates from land to sea.

The flux of terrestrially derived pathogens to coastal waters presents a significant health risk to marine wildlife, as well as to humans who utilize the nearshore for recreation and seafood harvest. Anthropogenic changes in natural habitats may result in increased transmission of zoonotic pathogens to coastal waters. The objective of our work was to evaluate how human-caused alterations of coastal landscapes in California affect the transport of Toxoplasma gondii to estuarine waters. Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that is excreted in the feces of infected felids and is thought to reach coastal waters in contaminated runoff. This zoonotic pathogen causes waterborne toxoplasmosis in humans and is a significant cause of death in threatened California sea otters. Surrogate particles that mimic the behavior of T. gondii oocysts in water were released in transport studies to evaluate if the loss of estuarine wetlands is contributing to an increased flux of oocysts into coastal waters. Compared to vegetated sites, more surrogates were recovered from unvegetated mudflat habitats, which represent degraded wetlands. Specifically, in Elkhorn Slough, where a large proportion of otters are infected with T. gondii, erosion of 36% of vegetated wetlands to mudflats may increase the flux of oocysts by more than 2 orders of magnitude. Total degradation of wetlands may result in increased Toxoplasma transport of 6 orders of magnitude or more. Destruction of wetland habitats along central coastal California may thus facilitate pathogen pollution in coastal waters with detrimental health impacts to wildlife and humans.

Nearshore larval retention in a region of strong upwelling and recruitment limitation.

The ability of miniscule larvae to control their fate and replenish populations in dynamic marine environments has been a long-running topic of debate of central importance for managing resources and understanding the ecology and evolution of life in the sea. Larvae are considered to be highly susceptible to offshore transport in productive upwelling regions, thereby increasing dispersal, limiting onshore recruitment, and reducing the intensity of community interactions. We show that 45 species of nearshore crustaceans were not transported far offshore in a recruitment-limited region characterized by strong upwelling. To the contrary, 92% of these larvae remained within 6 km from shore in high densities throughout development along two transects sampled four times during the peak upwelling season. Larvae of most species remained nearshore by remaining below a shallow Ekman layer of seaward-flowing surface waters throughout development. Larvae of other species migrated farther offshore by occurring closer to the surface early in development. Postlarvae evidently returned to nearshore adult habitats either by descending to shoreward-flowing upwelled waters or rising to the sea surface where they can be transported shoreward by wind relaxation events or internal waves. Thus wind-driven offshore transport should not limit recruitment, even in strong upwelling regions, and larvae are more likely to recruit closer to natal populations than is widely believed. This study poses a new challenge to determine the true cause and extent of recruitment limitation for a more diverse array of species along upwelling coasts, and thus to further advance our understanding of the connectivity, dynamics, and structure of coastal populations.

Locating sources of surf zone pollution: a mass budget analysis of fecal indicator bacteria at Huntington Beach, California.

The surf zone is the unique environment where ocean meets land and a place of critical ecological, economic, and recreational importance. In the United States, this natural resource is increasingly off-limits to the public due to elevated concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria and other contaminants, the sources of which are often unknown. In this paper, we describe an approach for calculating mass budgets of pollutants in the surf zone from shoreline monitoring data. The analysis reveals that fecal indicator bacteria pollution in the surf zone at several contiguous beaches in Orange County, California, originates from well-defined locations along the shore, including the tidal outlets of the Santa Ana River and Talbert Marsh. Fecal pollution flows into the ocean from the Santa Ana River and Talbert Marsh outlets during ebb tides and from there is transported parallel to the shoreline by wave-driven surf zone currents and/or offshore tidal currents, frequently contaminating >5 km of the surf zone. The methodology developed here for locating and quantifying sources of surf zone pollution should be applicable to a wide array of contaminants and coastal settings.